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Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy : Defining and Maintaining Price Stability

机译:价格稳定是货币政策的目标:定义和维持价格稳定

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摘要

This paper discusses how price stability can be defined and how price stability can be maintained in practice. Some lessons for the Eurosystem are also considered. With regard to defining price stability, the choice between price-level stability and low (including zero) inflation and the decisions about the price index, the quantitative target and the role of output stabilization are examined. With regard to maintaining price stability, three main alternatives are considered, namely commitment to a simple instrument rule (like a Taylor rule), forecast targeting (like inflation-forecast targeting) and intermediate targeting (like money-growth targeting). A simple instrument rule does not provide a substitute for a systematic framework for monetary policy deicisions. Such a framework is instead provided by forecast targeting. Forecast targeting can incorporate judgemental adjustments, extra-model information, and different indicators (including indicators of "risks to price stability"). By extending mean forecast targeting to distribution forecast targeting, nonlinearity, nonadditive uncertainty and model uncertainty can be incorporated. Eurosystem arguments in favor of its money-growth indicator and against inflation-forecast targeting are scrutinized and found unconvincing.
机译:本文讨论了如何定义价格稳定性以及在实践中如何保持价格稳定性。还考虑了欧元体系的一些教训。关于定义价格稳定性,研究了价格水平稳定性和低(包括零)通货膨胀之间的选择以及有关价格指数,定量目标和产出稳定作用的决定。关于保持价格稳定,考虑了三种主要替代方法,即对简单工具规则(如泰勒规则)的承诺,预测目标(如通胀-预测目标)和中间目标(如货币增长目标)。简单的工具规则无法替代货币政策决策的系统框架。相反,可以通过预测目标提供这种框架。预测目标可以包含判断性调整,额外模型信息和不同指标(包括“价格稳定风险”的指标)。通过将平均预测目标扩展到分布预测目标,可以合并非线性,非加性不确定性和模型不确定性。欧元体系支持其货币增长指标并反对通胀预测目标的论据受到严格审查,并没有说服力。

著录项

  • 作者

    Svensson, Lars E.O.;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 1999
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类

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